Rassegna economica del 3 ottobre 2026
https://pub-bd15d3ac8e334cc29be85e4a9fd1b8f2.r2.dev/EUJ-VID/EUJ-VID-0010.mp4
EBA
Many EU banks lag in assessing physical risks of climate events, EBA told (MLex)
Several European banking regulators on the European Banking Authority’s board of supervisors said the majority of banks in their jurisdictions haven’t fully incorporated physical risks from climate-related events in their risk assessments, according to minutes of a December meeting published this week. Supervisors and regulators don’t yet have sufficient relevant information concerning these risks and some members observed issues with data quality and data gaps, the minutes say.
ECONOMY
Excessive ECB Caution Could Push Inflation Below Target, Chief Economist Says (The Wall Street Journal)
The European Central Bank should avoid excessive caution in lowering its key interest rate, but must also be alert to signs that inflation is taking longer than expected to fall to its target, Chief Economist Philip Lane said Wednesday. In a speech in Washington, D.C., Lane also said that while it is clear that higher U.S. tariffs on EU goods would weaken eurozone economic growth, the likely impact on inflation is uncertain. The ECB on Thursday lowered its key interest for a fifth time since June 2024, and investors expect further cuts in upcoming meetings of its governing council as inflation cools and economic growth remains weak.
CENTRAL BANKS & REGULATORS
Top EU Nations Intensify Push to Make Banks More Competitive (Bloomberg)
Germany, France and Italy are stepping up their lobbying for an urgent review into weaknesses in Europe’s banking sector, including options to help lenders compete with huge American rivals. The European Union’s three largest economies are asking other member states, including Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Spain, to join their call for the bloc to launch an “ad hoc” review of banking competitiveness by the end of this quarter. “A number of metrics hint towards European banks being less and less competitive especially when compared to their international peers,” according to a draft of a letter shared with member states that was obtained by Bloomberg News. “This potential negative trend – if confirmed and if un-tackled – risks having significant repercussions,” including on the EU’s capacity to fund defense and other key industries, the letter said.
European Banks Keep Payouts Booming as Santander Pledges Buyback (Bloomberg)
European banks are signalling that they can keep making fat shareholder payouts as profits hold up despite a decline in interest rates. Six major lenders have already unveiled plans to return almost €24 billion ($25 billion) over the next months, compared with their €30.4 billion in dividends and share buybacks in all of last year. The total is set to grow as firms from Banco Santander SA to Deutsche Bank AG commit to distributing billions more. European banking stocks went from perennial laggards to the best performers in the region as they benefited from the end of negative interest rates and clarity over their regulatory capital needs. Now, lenders are trying to convince investors that they can keep up the pace by offsetting the impact of falling interest rates with higher fee income and new lending.
Here comes that fleet of omnibuses (Politico)
MFS got its hands on a draft document outlining the Commission’s work program for the coming months — and the promised fleet of omnibuses is on its way. Green finance: The first omnibus (which we knew about) should arrive in Q1 and covers sustainability. We also get confirmation and a date for the revision of the Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation, which will be in Q3. Going digital: The second, scheduled for Q2, will cover “small mid-caps” and remove paper requirements. But it’s the third that’s caught our eye: Also in Q2, a third legislative package will cover “investment simplification.” Wasn’t there another omnibus recently which aimed to make retail investment easier? One that’s still in negotiations? We’re of course talking about the retail investment strategy (RIS), which could feasibly be affected by this package — and that would be big.
Albuquerque takes aim at companies blocking CMU (Politico)
FS Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque called out the companies blocking progress towards more integrated capital markets in the EU, saying the Commission wants to “tackle it head on.” Rent-seekers: Speaking at the ESMA conference in Paris on Wednesday, Albuquerque said she is “well aware that some sectors and some companies profit from [EU capital market] inefficiency” and that the EU has “seen a streak of protectionism and rent seeking behavior” in “too many corners already” which “resulted in building barriers and stifling progress.” And on supervision: Albuquerque addressed the contentious issue of creating a single EU supervisor for nonbanks, saying that “at the minimum we need to continue improving supervisory convergence.” She asked whether it made sense for multiple national watchdogs to supervise cross-border firms, or to have each authority build capacity to supervise new areas when this could be done jointly. Here comes the ESAs review: “ESMA will play a central part in all of this,” Albuquerque said, adding that the upcoming review of the EU’s finance watchdogs is “not far off.” But she said she is “not attached to a specific model of supervision” and making the practice more consistent “doesn’t mean necessarily a unique supervisor.”
Trump’s trade war adds to ‘clear decoupling’ on central bank rate cuts (Financial Times)
Donald Trump’s threatened trade war is driving a wider wedge between the world’s biggest central banks, as the US Federal Reserve holds off rate cuts even as growth concerns hang heavily over other economies. Later on Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to become the latest central bank to cut interest rates this year. The Fed, however, is taking a different approach. It held borrowing costs last week, with chair Jay Powell indicating interest rates will remain on hold as the strong US economy enables policymakers to wait and see how tariffs and Trump’s other policies impact inflation.
BANKING & FINANCIAL SERVICES
Lloyds hit with £1bn tax bill after legal challenge fails (Financial Times)
Lloyds Banking Group has been ordered to pay a £1bn tax bill after the UK lender lost the first round of a legal battle with HM Revenue & Customs following losses it incurred in Ireland in the wake of the financial crisis. In a long-awaited ruling, a tribunal in London dismissed a legal challenge that the bank launched against the UK tax authority concerning its disposal of billions of euros worth of Irish property loans.
Up, and up (Politico)
Not that negative rates are really the issue at the moment, of course. There was more news of bumper profits yesterday from Europe’s banks, juiced by the highest rates in nearly two decades. The sector has, unbelievably, outperformed the S&P 500 in the last two years — albeit from an admittedly low, low baseline. Banking bonanza: Spanish and French giants Santander and Crédit Agricole recorded annual profit and revenue in excess of analyst expectations, with Santander announcing plans for a €10 billion share buyback over the next two years. That followed big buyback announcements from UBS, Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank over recent days. Finland’s Nordea also said it was in talks with the ECB over a new capital return program.
EU financial sector to see proposal on securitization revamp in second quarter (MLex)
The EU Commission is aiming to publish its review of the Securitization Framework during the second quarter of the year, according to a draft planning document seen by MLex. The initiative is eagerly expected by banks and financial markets participants, who argue that the current framework failed to boost this market after the financial crisis.
DIGITAL FINANCE
Digital euro gains new life as Europe worries about getting debanked under Trump (Politico)
The prospect of full-scale Trumpian economic war has injected fresh urgency into faltering European efforts to build a payments system safe from foreign influence. Since Facebook’s abortive attempt to roll out a global cryptocurrency in 2019, the European Central Bank has been in a panic over new payments technologies that it worries could undermine Europe’s control of its money supply and trigger financial instability. That has prompted it to develop a so-called digital euro — a pan-European payments network that it says will strengthen and unify a system that still runs largely along national lines, and which relies on foreign firms for cross-border transactions.
Pour la Banque de France, l’euro numérique est un outil de souveraineté (Les Echos)
For the Banque de France, the digital euro is a tool for sovereignty
The shockwaves have spread beyond US borders. Donald Trump’s ban on his central bank moving forward with its digital dollar project has set off alarm bells in Europe. Not so much because it dissuades other central banks from pursuing their own work on a digital currency, but because it increases the risk of seeing private digital currencies, such as stablecoins, which are favoured by the American president, being introduced into the processing of financial transactions. To understand this concern, we need to look at how transactions are ultimately paid for. For example, share purchases. Payment is made between two banks, by an exchange of flows between their accounts with the European Central Bank. This is known as settlement in central bank money, which is the safest currency because it cannot go bankrupt. The system is now well established.